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Be carefull to the State lotteries

I have a lot of doubts about the transparency and regularity of State lotteries, like the italian play called Superenalotto: it consists in choosing 6 numbers and you win the jackpot, when after the drawing of the lottery, you have guessed all 6 numbers.

Now the statistic probability to make it, is one on 622 million of combinations: it is thing very hard but not impossible. However, I comes to think that the play is not so clear.

In fact from December 1997 to the April 2010, the number of jackpots made during the 1550 drawings of the lottery, were equal to 52 with about 80 billion of combinations played.

Now after 13 years with a lot a combinations played, for large number law, the statistic probability should manifest itself in correct way. Now dividing the number of combinations played (80 billion) with the statistic probability to guess all 6 numbers (622 million), we should obtain 128,61 and not 52. It's a number too different for don't make to come doubts. What do you think ?



In my opinion:

There is a difference between statistical probability and real outcome. If you toss a coin, the statistical probability of getting head or tale (i.e, the chance of winning if you play infinite number of times) is 0,5.

80 billion combinations were probably so distributed that fewer winning combinations were played. If all the possible combinations are played and combinations are not repeated then there must be one winning combination. Anyway the real outcome of 52 wins is not far from the theoretical 128 wins. 

The lottery system is a way of getting money from people and redistributing it such that people get less money back. Some money should go to the government and some to be used to pay the lottery staff. So people are always on the losing side. But because people are greedy and they want to win the jackpot, they keep playing and losing their money.




Hi Nacir, I seem to understand that you are an expert of statistic. Do you tell me that the numbers 58, 128 are not statistically different, and that it is due to the case ? Bye

Well, I am not an expert. I learnt basic probability theory. 

There are 622 million different possible combinations. If 622 million people play lottery it is quite possible that a combination can be played by more than one man and no one gets the jackpot. Sometimes more than one person can have all the 6 right. Does the number 52 mean that 52 persons got the jack pot? may be a jackpot was shared between two or more persons. In that case the number of winning jackpot will be more than 52.

What does 80 billion combinations mean? Were these played in random manner? Some people have their favourite numbers, so we cannot guarantee that these are random combinations. Only 622 million combinations are possible, so many combinations were repeated and we assume that on the average each combination was repeated 128 times. Are you sure that each time only one person got the jackpot?





HI Nacir thank you for our discussion: it has been very interesting. It's true, when jackpot is out came, it was made by more people, but two or little more. It's also possible that to every drawing of lottery, the combinations were not played in manner random, also if a lot of played, was made with computer. However you made me think an aspect that I neglected: the average number of combinations played in every drawing (80 billion/1550 drawing) is equal to little more of 51 million, that is only the 8 % of all, a number too little to obtain a larger number of jackpot. Thank again

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