Ran
Critics on an investment proposal The firm offers advice for the client to invest in Consolidated Industries based on the conclusion that the demand for heating oil would increase in the Northeast part of United States.While the profit of a home heating oil company may increase when the demand is higher, the proposer’s argument is rife with holes. For one thing, that the demand for heating oil will increase is based on several evidences which may not necessarily lead to the conclusion. For another, while assuming the demand for heating oil is to increase, the client is not strongly convinced to invest specifically in Consolidated Industries. First of all, the author cites the weather forecast which predicts the chilling weather pattern to continue in the future several years but how accurate and successful this weather report is needed to be discussed to back up the author’s argument. Second, those families which traditionally used heating oil now could have resorted to other ways of warming such as solar heating, geothermic heating or air conditioners. To make the argument cogent, the author need make further investigation to rule out these alternatives. Third, new homes being built does not necessarily brings more consumers. If the homes are for immigrants then yes they are likely to call for increasing heat oil provide. However, if the population growth is just because of more newborns in current families, then there is no strong need to buy new homes,thus leaving no needs for more heating oil. Further more, even if the above assumptions all hold, the author failed to make a cogent relationship between the increasing demand and the prospective profit of investing in Consolidated Industries. As the author says, Consolidated Industries’ major business is the retail sale of home heating oil.However the families may join together in some kind of collective plan that needs a wholesale, in which case the retail sale companies may not make profit. The author has been focus on the Northeast part of United States where may be even out of Consolidated Industries’ market region or maybe Consolidated Industries only share a small part of the market of that region. Even if Consolidated Industries has a proper market share, there are still other companies doing the same business that may be more compatible to earn money for investors. If the author wants to make his/her argument convincing, the above assumptions need to be consolidated.
Oct 22, 2014 12:28 PM