A 'goad' (noun) is a spiked stick used for driving cattle or oxen. To 'goad' (verb) means to drive or urge (an animal) on with a goad. It also means to provoke or annoy (someone) so as to stimulate some action or reaction. It is this second definition that is referred to in your question. Some synonyms are incite, provoke, prompt, and urge. This statement is saying that pushing or provoking the Iranian hardliners is risky and will likely lead to serious problems down the road.

A "goad" is a pole with a sharp point on it. It is poked at an animal, like an ox, to make it move. As is often the case, we can also use the word as a verb. To "goad" an animal is to poke it with a goad. Figuratively, to "goad" someone is to get them irritated or angry in order to make them do something. A similar expression is "to spur someone." People who ride horses sometimes wear boots with sharp-pointed wheels attached to them. The rider kicks the horse with the spurs to make it go faster. Figuratively, you "spur someone on" to make them go faster or work harder or do more. The Latin word for a goad is "stimulus," and the English word "stimulus" means "something that forces someone or something to respond." It's usually used in a technical way. "The Minister of Finance lowered interest rates to stimulate the economy." "Behavorist psychologists try to explain human behavior in terms of learned responses to stimuli."

To provoke often in an annoying way. To move one into action.

It means to incite or provoke someone. It would be similar to подстрекать or провоцировать.

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