A good example of how language isn’t just about the grammar — the social context matters.
I do this as a native speaker of American English, and the idea behind why is that I (we) want to sort of soften the effect of the possible suggestion. We want to leave open the possibility of some other option for our conversation partner, even if we probably know the answer actually is “yes” to the main thing we are asking about. We don’t want to completely impose our guess/hunch on our conversation partner. (This is a cultural value across the English speaking countries.)
In the context of the first example you give, maybe one friend, Brian, is having a dinner party. And maybe he knows that Kevin, the friend he is asking to come to the party, has separated from his wife, Sarah. So it’s awkward for Brian to just assume what is happening with his friend’s life, and definitely to communicate any assumption to Kevin. Give Kevin the option of a chance to say, “Sarah has something she’s doing that evening, actually.”
Let him save a little face.