1. Right, "I'm not coming" can indicate future activity. People say, for example, "my train is leaving tomorrow morning". The speaker is indicating an intent not to attend the future party.
2. All three are fairly harsh, not softened by any excuse, but "I'm not going to come" and "I won't come" seem more strident to me.
3. If any of the three can be said to be preferred, then best is "Did you say xxx is coming? I'm not coming".