Hi, Wind! I'll agree with you on this one. They have very similar meanings to me, but "shouldn't" is a bit weaker in my eyes than "can't". "This can't be happening" is used when you, beyond a shadow of a doubt, think that something have 0% chance of happening, but it still is. "This shouldn't be happening" means that you knew there was a chance of it not happening, but you also thought it could possibly happen. This is purely my opinion on how I view these two different sentences, and how I would use them. Hope this helped!
-Kyle