Well apparently it could also be referring to a song by an artist named, "Don Henley" who wrote a song called, "Little Tin God".
It brings to my mind, cheap things which people buy as souvenirs.
The song says people shouldn't pray to a little tin god.
Tin, is a cheap metal, little god suggests a little statue to place on your shelves at home, or beside the table.
If the saying existed before the song, I don't know but it refers to either the song, which says that figure is not of any worth, or the saying existed before the song and it is symbolic of a person who thinks too much of themselves.
I personally favour the song because it sounds like it took someone's imagination to work it out, to coin the phrase, as people say.
Little, tin and God all go together to make something which represents great importance but has great irony as it's rather worthless in itself.
But that's a guess.
http://www.lyricsfreak.com/d/don+henley/little+tin+god_20042060.html