I'm guessing... or I guess.....
A: How about over there? That place looks like a restaurant.
B: Yeah, but with all those servers in white tuxes, I'm guessing it's going to be expensive.
"I'm guessing...." sounds natural to me. And I feel like saying like that . But I always use "I guess..." only.
Would you tell me the difference between "I'm guessing " and "I guess ",please?