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SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC FACTORS OF THE FORMATION OF THE OB RIVER RUNOFF
The analysis of the influence of climatic factors on fluctuations in the flow of the Ob River is carried out. Based on the analysis of long-term series of annual and seasonal runoff of the Ob and differential integral curves, the phases of change in river flow are revealed. Spatial features of changes in precipitation and air temperature in different periods of water content have been studied.
Mathematical and statistical processing of cartographic images made it possible to identify areas of the predominant influence of various climatic factors on the volume of river flow. The areas of the basin where climatic fluctuations had the greatest impact on the change in the Ob river flow in 1930-2017 have been identified. One of these areas is confined to the basin of the Tobol River, the second is adjacent to the Ob and Yenisei watershed.
It is shown that the increase in winter water runoff is largely due to fluctuations in precipitation and air temperature. It is impossible to completely exclude the impact of permafrost degradation on the volume of Ob runoff, but it is obvious this factor is not significant.
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MODELLING OF THE OB RIVER RUNOFF UNDER CLIMAT CHANGE
The connection of the Ob river runoff variability with meteorological parameters in different parts of its catchment area is considered. Modelling of the Ob river runoff under changing climatic conditions has been carried out. Two scenarios of climate change in the Ob river catchment area in 2021-2050 are proposed.
According to the first scenario, the climate trends that began in the territory of the Ob catchment area in the second half of the XX century will continue. The average annual air temperature will continue to increase throughout the basin at a rate of 0.3°C/10 years. Multidirectional changes in average annual precipitation in different parts of the catchment area will continue against the background of a directional, but statistically insignificant increase in precipitation for the catchment as a whole. According to the second scenario, the air temperature trend will change direction, and the Ob River catchment area will begin to cool at the same rate. The total amount of precipitation over the catchment area will decrease slightly.
It is shown that in both scenarios, the Ob River discharge will not undergo significant directional changes.
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My first motivation letter
Motivation letter
Application for studying in summer school “Runoff predictions in ungauged basins”
I was educated at two universities in Russia. But I have never studied in other countries before. In our country, it is not customary to write motivational letters. This is my first motivation letter. In addition to my CV provided, I would like to take this opportunity to write a motivation letter to clarify my main reason that drives me to study in your summer school.
Some time ago, a colleague of mine gave me a leaflet with program of your summer school. She said, "this is absolutely for you". I didn't believe her until I read the program. I was so interested that I found and read the book “Runoff prediction in ungauged basins: synthesis across processes, places and scales”. This was very helpful, but I have still a lot of questions and want to find answers for it.
Even at secondary school I began to be interested by physical geography. That's why I chose to go to a University where they taught natural sciences. While I was studying at the University, I became interested in meteorology. My graduated work was about influence of Onega lake on the climate of adjacent territories. After graduating from University I worked for a while in a field that was not related to science. At that time, I realized that I could not be indifferent to modern research in the field of natural science and I must to be the scientist. And then I went on to postgraduate school.
My postgraduate education guided my scientific interests to the field of hydrology. Since 2016 I have been working in the laboratory of Oceanography and radioecology of the Murmansk marine biological Institute. My research is related to the impact of river runoff on the seas. In my work I often encounter a lack of data of the small rivers runoff. In this regard I began to wonder what methods of runoff reconstruction and runoff prediction are exist. That is why I need to learn methods of estimating runoff characteristics in the absence of local runoff observations in upcoming summer school.
Now I am studying the rivers in the Kara sea basin. In these Northern territories, it is very difficult to keep regular observations of river runoff. Therefore, I faced a lack of data on the runoff characteristics of rivers in the region. I hope I will have the opportunity to take part in the summer school and after my return I will to use my new knowledge.
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The connection of the Ob river flow variability with meteorological parameters in different parts of its catchment area is considered. Areas of the prevailing influence of the air temperature and different types of precipitation on Ob runoff fluctuations were identified. The long-term series of average annual water discharge in the Salekhard hydrometric station for the period 1936-2015 is reconstructed. the Reconstructed series reproduces the measured interannual fluctuations and long-term trends of the average annual water discharge good.
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RECONSTRUCTION OF THE OB RIVER RUNOFF USING METEOROLOGICAL DATA
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The correlation between the changes of the annual and seasonal Ob river runoff and the main climatic characteristics is considered. For study climate characteristics and their impact on the river runoff the catchment area was divided into 4 private river basins of the Ob river system: Tobol, Ishim, Irtysh, upper and middle Ob. The analysis of the significance of correlations of Ob river runoff volumes with the amount of precipitation and temperatures in the territories of private basins is performed. The features of the influence of climate characteristics of the parts of Ob catchment area on the runoff in the lower flow of the river are determined.
It is proving that the water content of the year is determined primarily by the water content of the warm half-year. River runoff in the warm half of the year is formed mainly by snow accumulated in the catchment area in winter, and liquid precipitation for the warm half-year. Local zones of influence of solid precipitation on the lower Ob river runoff during the warm half-year were determined. The most significant for the runoff during warm half-year is amount of solid precipitation into the Tobol and upper and middle Ob basins. A significant part of the years of extremely high water content for the Ob river can be explained by the coincidence of the maximum solid precipitation in these basins.
In the cold half-year, solid precipitation that falls the catchment area are not participate in the formation of runoff. An increase in the number of winter thaws was observed on the territories of all the river basins. It contributes to partial snow melting in the cold half-year and leading to an increase in winter water content.
In General, the Ob river runoff during the warm half of the year has a closer relationship with climate characteristics than the runoff during cold half of the year.
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A method of quantitative assessment of the marine environment of pollutants from the bilge waters of ships was developed. The contribution of shipping and marine oil extraction to the pollution of the Barents and White seas by heavy metals and oil hydrocarbons was estimated. According to calculations, about 1.5 tons of oil is annually supplied to the Barents and White seas from the bilge waters, which is less than previously estimated. Oil losses during oil loading operations are estimated at 1200-6500 tons per year, leaks in oil production-less than 1 ton per year. The amount of heavy metals, nitrogen compounds, surfactants entering the seas annually with the bilge waters of ships varies for various pollutants from several tens of grams to 10 kg.
Thus, the bilge waters of ships are not a significant source of pollution of the Barents and White seas. The contribution of shipping to marine waters pollution by oil hydrocarbons due to losses during oil loading operations is noticeable. Routine operation of vessels and oil platform "Prirazlomnaya" under conditions of strict compliance with the environmental standards of navigation, control of cargo leakages and no accidents will not have a significant impact on the quality of waters of the Barents and White seas.
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"marine water environment" or "marine environment" ?
Zoning of the White Sea catchment area by the degree of influence of continental runoff on the marine water environment.
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My friends, help me to correct this text, please.
The development of ideas about the processes of mixing of river and sea waters in estuaries
The basic stages of development of understanding of the processes occurring on the border of the river and the sea are inspected. With the development of the theoretical Oceanography and improvement of the measuring instruments the process of mixing river and sea water had been considered from different positions and with different degree of confidence.
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Help me to correct this English text on hydrology, please. Native speakers are better.
Methodology of integral evaluation of the potential impact of continental runoff on the aquatic environment are developed and tested in relation to the catchment area of the White sea. An integral indicators of pollution potential (PP) and self-purification capacity (SPC) of the river waters are calculated within the boundaries of the hydrologic areas. The following indicators are used for calculating the PP: the volume of wastewater and the population density in the catchment area (anthropogenic components of pollution), sediment load (natural component of pollution). Such natural settings of the catchment as the lake percentage, woodiness and the role of topography in self-purification of rivers are used for calculating the SPC. The quality of river waters, entering the sea, is the result of the ratio of the proposed integrated indicators. On the basis of the quantitative ratios of PP and SPC the zoning of the catchment area according to the degree of the negative impact of river waters on water quality in the White sea are performed. The resulting zoning scheme is demonstrate a holistic picture, representing a complex of natural-economic factors on the river catchments of the White sea basin. The obtained results can be used for develop scientifically valid environmental programs and for planning industrial development in the catchment area.
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