The correct way to say it is 'He is jogging in the park.' 'is' makes it present tense so he jogging right now He will be jogging in the park. - This is future tense so it means he will be jogging in the park later but not necessary now. He would be jogging in the park. - This means normally Ted would be jogging in the park but he is not. It can also mean Ted habitually jogs in the park. Bonus: He should be jogging in the park. - This means you expect that he is jogging in the park but you don't know for sure. This is kinda a weird usage of 'should' but its used pretty often like this.

"Ted is probably jogging in the park" sounds the most natural to me.