whats the difference between: he might have committed a mistake. he must have committed a mistake

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You use "might have" to express a possibilty. But you use "must have" to show confidence in something, as if you are sure about something.

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Might is also a bit more polite. Even if you know he committed a mistake, you can use the word 'might' to sound less harsh.

So, you see someone made a mistake and you say "you might have made a mistake there". That comes off as politer than 'you made a mistake' or "you must have made a mistake". Either way he knows he made a mistake.

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Agree with 一

might have -  50% certain
must have - 90%-100% certain

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^ he's right

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The tones. Kind of certain vs. absolutely certain.

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