“Probably” would suggest there’s a higher chance of something happening, verses “maybe”. However, some people answer questions with “maybe” when they know it’s going to happen but they are trying to be playful. Unfortunately it just depends on their tone of voice and body language.

Probably is an adverb

Great question! "Maybe" means there is a possibility something will happen. It might happen. - Do you think it will rain today? - I don't know. Maybe it will rain. "Probably" means that something is likely to happen. It will happen, in my opinion; I'm almost sure it will happen. - Do you think it will rain today? - Yes, the clouds are dark. It will probably rain today. I hope that helps!

For me, "probably" normally means a likelihood greater than 50% - literally, that something is more probable than improbable. It could be as low as 50.000001% or as high as 99.99%+. "Maybe" could be any likelihood, perhaps as low as 0.0000001%, or as high as 99.99%+. However if the likelihood were above 50% you would normally say "probably" rather than "maybe", and for a very high likelihood (say 95%+) you would normally say "almost certainly" or "almost definitely", or maybe "surely" (at around 90%+), or just omit the adverb altogether.