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Som (সোম)
Coronavirus: Myths and Facts
No, this isn't an opinion piece. It's about facts as known to science and statistical data. In fact, this is my small attempt to counter the wild stories going around, otherwise a third post in as many days is far too many by my standards.
First, the myths.
1. The Coronavirus is a new and dangerous pathogen. Not at all. There is no single or unique organism called coronavirus, it's a very common family of viruses found in humans and other mammalian and avian species. SARS, MERS and common influenza are all coronaviruses.
2. It originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan, China. Not necessarily. Four people working in this market showed up at a hospital with identical symptoms of respiratory problems and fever, and that's when it was noted and diagnosed. Later on older cases have come to light which were previously undiagnosed or not reported, but they have no direct link to that market.
3. The virus has come via snakes. Extremely unlikely. As said above, coronaviruses affect mammals and birds, not snakes. Snakes are too different to be hosts to the same viruses.
4. It happened in China because the Chinese eat anything and everything. Statistically false. Most Chinese eat the much same way now as the rest of the world. While some still do eat rather unusual things, that's true for most places including my country. It's hardly fair to stereotype an entire country by what relatively few actually do.
5. This thing is the modern bubonic plague and will soon sweep the whole world. No way. We now know a hell of a lot more about epidemiology than people did back then. It's just that some Cassandras always exist to cry havoc and doom, and yet others believe them blindly.
Now the facts:
1. The virus is actually called nCoV 2019, or novel Coronavirus 2019. It is a mutated strain from the larger coronavirus family. We know because the entire virus genome was sequenced, mapped and published within days of detection.
2. It is a zoonotic virus that has jumped from some animal host to humans. Coronaviruses are generally known to originate from bats but they don't jump to humans directly. SARS jumped from civet cats while MERS jumped from wild dromedary camels. In this case we don't know yet what the immediate contact animal host was.
3. This virus affects respiratory tracts and spreads via saliva and mucus droplets from coughing and sneezing. It can also spread through kissing and via toddlers who don't care about basic hygiene. The transmission vector dictates containment action.
4. The virus is moderately infectious, but no more than common influenza and much less so than many other known viruses. As known now, on an average every infected person could pass it on to two others, but this is a mathematical model based number that's not necessarily very accurate yet. It looks scary but there are existing viruses with a "contagion rate" (R0) of four or more and we aren't exterminated yet.
5. Virulence or the actual impact of a virus is calculated as the fatality rate among those infected. In this case it's estimated to be around 3% but again it's a not very accurate estimate as of now. SARS and MERS were far more virulent but we are still alive. Given that we know far more about epidemiology and genetics than we did in 2003 during the SARS outbreak, this will be nowhere as serious.
6. There is no direct cure or vaccine yet, nor do we have any naturally acquired immunity. But the best minds across the world are at work overtime to develop cures and vaccines right now.
7. The best way to arrest the spread of the nCoV 2019 at the moment is quarantine, isolation, basic hygiene like washing hands frequently and avoiding crowded places and this is precisely what is being done all over the world, especially in China.
8. The WHO has declared this to be a global health emergency now, but that's a call to be aware and careful, not to panic. Spreading panic and rumors doesn't help in arresting the spread of the virus. In fact rumor is a potent virus all by itself. Idea viruses exist as much as physical ones, and are often more dangerous than any actual pathogen.
I believe we all should be responsible about this rather than rumor mongering. The world definitely isn't ending.
2020年2月1日 15:48
评论 · 63
10
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Post Scriptum:
Yesterday the death was announced by the BBC of Dr. Li Wenliang, the hospital doctor mentioned in the <em>Guardian</em> article, (below), who first attempted to alert the health authorities of a potential viral outbreak in December. He died after becoming infected with the coronavirus. He was 34.
Was this also reported in China?
I hope your country acknowledges his courage and honours his name.
Best wishes.
2020年2月7日
9
Som Bhatta: This is the best article on the subject! Too bad you aren’t a respected ace reporter at a major media outlet. By the way, it’s my understanding that the common cold is also a coronavirus, and yet this word is being used by the unethical mass media to terrify people in a pathetic, cynical attempt to boost ratings. All the good people affected are in my prayers.
2020年2月1日
8
@ Som
Yes. The thread seems to have been deleted. Perhaps the iTalki thought police didn’t like one or two of the more speculative posts – the company’s main office is in mainland China after all .....
So here, at least, is mine (again!):
1 (2)
All human pathogens (the causes of infectious diseases) have their origins in animal populations. The first of these originated around 10,000 years ago when humans began domesticating wild animals and these were kept in large concentrations in close proximity to human settlements. The accumulation of human and animal waste and regular contact with animals of different species enabled animal pathogens to transfer from their animal hosts to humans, to which many have now become uniquely adapted.
HIV, which can give rise to AIDS, for example, derives from SIV (<em style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">Simian Immunodeficiency Virus</em>), a monkey pathogen. Ebola is probably a bat virus and SARS (which like the current outbreak also arose in China) most likely has its natural host in wild civet cat populations.
Human flu viruses have their origins in migratory wildfowl. New strains of these also arise in southern China where wild birds mix with domestic fowl and other species. Live animal markets, common in China and other Asian countries, where infected animals of different species such as ducks, cats and pigs are kept in close proximity with humans in densely populated areas provide ample opportunity for cross-infection. This, together with the movement of itinerant workers and a sub-tropical climate, (most human pathogens thrive at around 37°C, human body temperature), is the reason that most of the world’s new influenza strains come from this region.
2020年2月3日
8
Also just like the common cold or flu it is killing older people with an underlying medical condition the underlying medical condition allows the virus to become lethal to these people because of their lowered immunity and inability to resist the virus. Unfortunately it is a syndrome the UK is used to; the flu season is not called the killer season in the UK for no reason the highest death toll is over christmas and the new year for elderly people with underlying medical conditions in the UK, keep an eye on your elderly neighbours or neighbors
2020年2月1日
7
Ensuring accessibility of the right information and debunking the credibility of the wrong information is the most powerful weapon we humans have. It's precisely because of this that tоtаIitаriаn governments suppress information. It keeps power in their hands and preserves their credibility after a fashion. The iron curtain has always existed in all tоtаIitаriаn regimes everywhere for this very reason. The problem is that it's impossible to be a global economic powerhouse and censor information at the same time. North Korea does it more effectively because it has cut itself off from the rest of the world, something which Сhinа cannot do.
2020年2月9日
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Som (সোম)
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