Tony is correct however in the second sentence, the use of "probably" after a quoted word creates a pause. The first sentence flows better.

Your first sentence is right. The first example reads nicely, since the adverb "probably" is correctly placed before the main verb it modifies. But "focusing adverbs," according to Kenneth Beare at "ThoughtCo, can be located in different places for emphasis (In my first sentence I placed "nicely" after the verb for emphasis). Your second sentence is also right. The word "probably" can be a "sentence adverb." According to Grant Barrett in his book "Perfect English Grammar," sentence adverbs are placed at the beginning to modify an entire sentence or clause. You placed "probably" to modify the clause "because...." What do you think?

ell.stackexchange.com/questions/4789/where-should-the-word-probably-be-placed