"plus-size", "full-figured", "definitely carrying extra pounds (or kilograms)", or, if you're being poetic "juno-esque".
It's best not to say anything unless you you feel you have to. And never think you have to remind the woman. There is not a single woman on the planet that doesn't know if she's carrying extra weight. In fact, in the West, many women who are actually slim are worried to death that they are fat. This may be the one of the worst aspects of American culture that we have exported.