likely = 70% probable more than likely = more than 70% probably

More than likely = 最有可能 It will probably happen. Example : "It will more than likely rain tomorrow" - 明天因该会下雨／名天最有可能下雨

more than likely=probably more than likely your mom will call you= your mom will probably call you (not 100% sure, but there is a good chance of the event happening)

more than likely= very likely or bound to happen Example: It’s more than likely that they will change the exam rules next year.

I really appreciate your explaining. Thanks!